Below are my 2022 Bold Predictions. There is no set schedule for releasing these, as I go with the flow. However, note that I post an article every time I release one, so as long as you keep tabs on the 'articles' section of the site, you will never miss new content drops, as I always announce them.
đź‘ŤTop 10 Bold Predictions (Booms)
Update: 5/21/22
The recent signing of Melvin Gordon has everyone in a panic when it comes to Javonte Williams. Melvin Gordon resigning is a gift. I would NOT undo it if I had the power to. Why? Value! Javonte now has second-round value in dynasty (vs top 5-7 overall value prior to the Melvin resigning). This means that he has far less risk, as he can now be your second-drafted player. And, since Melvin scares me zero percent, it's a welcomed bump-down, as now you can walk out of your 2022 fantasy football yearly-league draft with a guy like Ja'Marr Chase in Round 1, and Javonte Williams in Round 2. That is insane! I know, some of you worry about because of last year, but think about it like this... here is a sequence of events as they happened, which should explain how ridiculous all this is:
- February: Javonte Williams was inside most everyone's top 5-10 overall, and this was with the strong possibility that Melvin Gordon may not test free agency, and it was when the team did not have Russell Wilson or any sort of competent signal caller.
- Early March: Melvin Gordon left for free agency.
- Mid March: The Broncos acquired Russell Wilson.
- April: Melvin Gordon returns to resign with Broncos
- May: Javonte Williams, who was valued as a top 5-10 overall player back in February (with Melvin on roster and no Russell Wilson), is now treated like a 15-24 overall pick, as if his situation didn't drastically improve from February's with that addition of Wilson.
It's madness. This guy led the entire NFL in broken tackles, yet he only played half-time. With Russell Wilson under center, the Broncos will live in the red zone and will be playing to win. Their best RB will be fed. Javonte is the best RB on the roster, by a mile... in fact, I truly think Javonte can finish as the #1 overall runner in 2022. Melvin Gordon is last year's Nyheim Hines (to Jonathan Taylor). It is no different whatsoever. Hines scared everyone into letting Taylor fall into the 9-14 overall range. Read the below write-up as well, as it still all stands.
Date: 4/14/22
Javonte Williams, even after the Russell Wilson acquisition in Denver, is still falling to 6-10 overall in early mock drafts. He is arguably my No. 2 overall, and I mock him there all the time. I believe in trading down if you can, but I honestly will pay No. 2 overall value if push comes to shove. This kid led the league in broken tackles in 2021, and only played half-time. He was also a rookie. The sky is the limit for him with Wilson in town, who will move the changes and help the Broncos offense live inside the red zone, which will equal untapped touchdown opportunities. I love Javonte this season, even if Melvin Gordon were to resign. He doesn't concern me like he does so many others. While I suppose I will enjoy hearing that he signs elsewhere, if he does, it will mostly be because I'm tired of explaining why I don't think he is a problem on or off the roster. The Broncos didn't want to put unnecessary mileage on the tires of Javonte during his rookie season, as the team was playing for nothing. They will feed him in 2022, and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Javonte had 1400+ rushing yards, 400-500 receiving yards, 60-70 receptions and 15 total touchdowns.
Joe Burrow will compete with both Josh Allen and Justin Herbert all season long for NFL MVP. He will also be in the top 1-3 fantasy football QB convo all season long. He and Ja'Marr Chase will both get better, which is something no one talks about. People talk about Chase's inconsitency last year, but fail to acknowledge that he was a rookie last year (and had the best rookie WR season ever). Imagine thinking he won't improve on all levels? It's laughable. Burrow and Chase will connect on what will likely be 12-15 TDs, and Burrow will zoom past 40TDs, maybe something along the lines of 42-45.
Updated: His ADP has fallen into round 4, so make sure you take him in round 4 or trade for him (after drafts) at 4th-round equivalent value.
Updated: 7/9/22
Since the below write-up, I have been getting more and more excited about Breece Hall. He has climbed a bit in ADP, but not that much. And, it depends on what draft app you're using, as he falls to late 4 and sometimes 5 in ESPN drafts and on Underdog Fantasy (use code: Smitty).... on Sleeper he falls only to late 3 or mid 4... Either way, Hall wins leagues in all of these situations. Of course, the later you get him, the greater the impact, right? That goes without saying. So, be certain to use the pre-rank list to your advantage, meaning if you are on the clock at 3.5 and Hall is 15 overall players down on the pre-rank list, you can maybe wait until your 4th-round pick to grab him. If you're on the clock at 3.5 and he's the 3rd-ranked RB and 9th-ranked overall player, I say reach for him without hesitation.
Below I write I like Kenneth Walker's skill set more than Hall's (but I like Hall's situation better), but the truth is, I am starting to like Hall as much skill set wise and I still love his situation more. Thus, Hall is inching closer and closer to my #1 overall bold prediction for all of 2022. That does NOT mean that Walker can't earn the same kind of upside just as soon as he starts getting a starter workload. Once he does, and I do believe it's not a matter of if and it's just a matter of when, well... I think Hall and Walker will both live inside my top 3 overall bold predictions for 2022. Now, Walker could enter the year without having line on the starting gig, thus the bold predictions will lock into place and he can't climb it. But, I have him down below and still on the bold predictions regardless. He can win a league at 6-7 and 8 round value. In a way, we could argue that we don't want Walker to climb into the starting line-up in SEA until a few weeks into the season. Why? Because we can get him at round 7 value and clean up. If Penny gets hurt before draft day, Walker climbs into round 4 right next to Hall. I like his odds of climbing no matter what, meaning Penny doesn't scare me long-term... so, the discount is good. We shouldn't wish for having to overpay.
Final thoughts on Hall... He can be a top 5-10RB as a rookie. He's an absolute monster. If you haven't watched his footage, I urge you to. He has Jonathan Taylor written all over him, and I wouldn't be shocked one bit if Hall has such a good season in 2022 that he gets drafted inside the top 4 overall in 2023 next season (in redraft).
Original Post: 4/21/22)
Breece Hall has huge upside in a New York. The Jets are building something special, on both sides of the football, and Hall is going to be a big part of it all. While he faces some potential short-term, and long-term, competition in Michael Carter, the draft capital spent on Hall speaks volumes; due to that cost of entry, he is the favorite to eventually grab ahold of the main running back duties. The concern for prospective Hall owners is, will there be a full RBBC in 2022? Will Carter retain all third-down work plus steal a grip of first- and second-down work? It's possible.
Honestly, I like Kenneth Walker more skill set wise, which is saying a lot! It says a lot because I have Hall ranked #2 on the Bold Predictions here... he is a monster. He will win leagues. I love both. Hall is ranked higher on these Bold Predictions, but if Walker grabs the starting gig sooner vs later (and now it feels like he won't start Week 1, which is fine), he will easily climb up my rankings and Bold Prediction board... Walker likes to change directions all over the place, much like an Alvin Kamara meets Javonte Williams. Both have different upsides with their styles. I think Hall, if falling to round four in redraft, presents a league-winning opportunity for fantasy owners. Walker as well near his 6-7-8 round ADP (yeah, you heard me right, his ADP range is that wide, and if I love him in 6, you can imagine how much I love him in 7 or 8). My three favorite redraft running backs in 2022, given their ADPs:
- Javonte Williams in Round 2 or at pick 12 (redraft)
- Kenneth Walker in Round 6-8 (redraft)
- Breece Hall in Round 4 or late 3 (redraft)
These three stud rushers have RB1 capability in fantasy, yet are a bargain and they can limb rounds in value.
Updated: 8/16/22
Jalen Hurts is going to ball in 2022. The hate and doubt is real when it comes to Hurts, despite finishing as a top 10QB in 2021.
History: Hurts played all of last year, which was his second season. He was great overall, considering his supporting cast. The year prior, the guy essentially commanded two games in Weeks 15 and 16 as a rookie, throwing for over 300 yards in each contest, then he was benched by Doug Peterson, who was then fired that off-season... then, after being fired, the Eagles hired Nick Siranni, and he just coached Hurts along through that solid sophomore season that I just described above.
Hurts came into that solidly-played season of 2021 set to impress, and despite having a mess of an offense, he still dropped amazing numbers, despite being labeled a dink and dunk passer with bad accuracy and no passing upside. He only threw for 16TDs, had 9 INTs and threw for just 3144 yards. However, he did run for 784 yards and 10TDs. So, in summary, the rushing stats made him a fantasy gem, but the low passing totals left lots of judging critics that have already determined that Hurts is not a big-time passer (and that he only has rushing appeal).
I am here to set the record straight. Again, reflecting back to his rookie season, Hurts threw for 338 yards and 3TDs (with 63 yards rushing and 1TD) in his first game in 2020... then, during his second game, he tossed for 342 and 1TD (running for 69 yards and 0TDs). Again, those were his first two NFL starts... as a rookie. I bring up those rookie stats again to emphasize that he has a cannon and ability to sling the rock. You don't throw for 300+ yards by accident in your first two starts. He's legit.
Hurts not having the proper weaponry in 2021 accounts for his mediocre 2021 passing stats (assisted by his amazing rushing ability and production). The addition of AJ Brown, one of the league's most dominating wide receivers, is getting completely overlooked when Hurts critics start citing 2021 as a harbinger of things to come as it relates to Hurts' upcoming 2022 season. Imagine taking an AJ Brown-type player off any team.. what then for that QB? To add such a player to the Eagles roster, it's crazy how little buzz it's getting as it relates to likely improvement expected out of Hurts. Adding a top 5-7WR is massive. Dallas Goedert, Devonte Smith and AJ Brown are one of the league's most dynamic trios, and Hurts now steps into year 2 as the Eagles full-time starter... He will take a huge step forward in 2022.
Lastly, I want to add that sometimes the eye test is taken into account more with certain predictions.. at least for me. While there are for sure some data points to look at here, I'm ultimately suggesting that this prediction has a lot of gut instinct to it. I feel Hurts has the talent to be unreal. Top 5QB unreal... And, even though he did play a full season last year, keep in mind how much different Josh Allen looked in years 2 and 3 compared to year 1. Not every QB has what they need during their first full season starting. Don't judge a book by it's cover when it comes to Hurts. His first starting season is the cover. AJ Brown is here to help him write the rest of the story.
I predict Hurts throws for 3600-3800 yards and 28+TDs, while rushing for 800-900 and 8-10TDs. This will place him firmly inside the top 5QB range in 2022. Buckle-up.
Update: 6/2/2022
Travis Etienne is an amazing talent overall. He can run between the tackles, he's hard-working kid that is hungry for touches. He is also the best receiver on the Jaguars' roster. He has amazing hands and the team appears to have great motivation to utilize his receiving abilities. Trevor Lawrence (aka The Law Dog) and Etienne have a already-strong rapport; they played together in college. So, you can bet that Lawrence will command that Etienne is on the field all the time, which helps combat the only two negatives at hand:
- Doug Peterson always runs a RBBC.
- Etienne is coming off a foot injury.
As mentioned above, Etienne is the best receiver on the Jaguars' roster, which gives him a great shot at overcoming a RBBC. He's the best weapon on the team. So, while history tells us a RBBC is a near certainty, this time around I'm not so sure a RBBC can threaten the rapport between Etienne and Lawrence, and I just don't see the best weapon on the roster being rotated in and out of the line-up. Moved around? Sure. Rotated in and out? I say no.
Conclusion
Health is my only concern with Etienne. I'm not even concerned about the Jaguars' offense, as playing from behind won't have Etienne getting game scripted out of action.. In 2022, Etienne can literally be a 800 and 800 type of player, with 10+ TDs and 60+ receptions. These numbers would easily have him inside the top 10RBs for 2022.
Updated: 7/18/2022
Let me first start off by saying, yes, I was not super high on D'Andre Swift last year. But, it was based off ADP and situation, not talent. I've always loved his abilities. There was a lot wrong with that Detroit RB situation last season. It all started and ended with former Lions OC Anthony Lynn, who is now with the 49ers. Lynn refused to acknowledge Swift as the #1 RB on the team. He constantly called Swift the "B" back and Jamaal Williams his "A" back. This lasted all off-season and through half of the 2021 NFL season. It was misguided and it was ridiculous. So, my concerns last year had to be accounted into Swift's 2021 upside and risk. He did fall ADP-wise as last off-season moved along, and I wasn't against his August 2021 ADP, which was more around end of round 2.
So, all that said, Lynn is gone, and Swift has zero risk in terms of workload. And, his offense is very decent, despite being led by Jared Goff. Another concern last year was the offense and QB play, but the Lions have improved a ton heading into 2022, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to stretch the field. Also, once Jameson Williams is back and healthy, that passing attack will keep defenses even more honest. Are the Lions going to make the playoffs? Probably not, although crazier things have happened. But, even if they are just decent and show good future upside, I think they move the ball well and get into the red zone way more than people expect. Aside from the Goff piece, the offense is stacked.
Swift should explode in 2022. He is extremely situation-proof in many ways, and he is certainly capable of overcoming any sort of game flow issues. Meaning, if the Lions are down in games and forced to pass their way back into action, Swift will thrive, as he could catch 70-90 balls in 2022. I know that's a wide range, 70-90, but there just is no telling how much PPR upside this kid could have, as it all depends on how much they feed him.
Now, I will say that his one single red flag, and there is just one, is injury concern. But, when a player has this much upside, is young, and is the focal point of his offense, I think we can accept one red flag.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Swift was a top 3-5RB in 2022, had 80-90 receptions, had 1,800-1,900 total yards and 10-13TDs.
Updated: 8/22/2022
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the 2nd-best WR in all of fantasy football 2021 during Weeks 13-18. And, it wasn't like he had 1-2 big weeks spread-out in that timeframe (skewing the data)... he was literally top 5 for WRs in each of those weeks 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18. He was an absolute monster, getting double -digit targets in all of those games. Some will say that injuries to the Lions pass-catchers led to an overload of targets for St. Brown, and while there is some truth to that, there is no tripping and falling into the production he had and the way he looked doing it. If you watch his highlights, he was not just stumbling into production, he looked unstoppable. His dad was Mr. Universe in 1981 (and I think 1982 as well), and he has taught his son how to train and stay healthy. He comes from a line of workout monsters. On top of physical drive, St. Brown has a chip on his shoulder for being passed on by so many teams. He carries that with him, and he has fight in him.
With the Lions looking very underrated, with weapons all over, I venture to say any dip in targets for St. Brown gets made up for in touchdown opportunities, as the Lions will march down into red zone territory much more frequently in 2022.
I love St. Brown as my WR3 in fantasy football 2022. And, if you stack your RBs and WR1, and let's say TE1, it's not crazy to make him your WR2 in such an approach.
Projections: 95-100 receptions, 1,200+ yards and 8-10TDs.
Dameon Pierce is the starting RB for the Houston Texans, and the job is his by a mile. Not only is he the only elite talent on the roster, he already has the belief of the coaching staff. They love him, and for good reason. He is an angry runner, he's aggressive, and he has massive home run upside. And, this Texans team is very, very underrated. They can beat any team in the NFL on any given day, and Davis Mills is a super sleeper passer in 2022. They will live in the red zone more than people will expect. It wouldn't shock me at all if Pierce ran for 1,100+ yards and 8-10TDs as a rookie.
Updated: 7/9/22
I love Breece Hall. I also love Kenneth Walker.
Both runners have top 5-10RB upside, and Seattle and New York (Jets) are amazing landing spots for both rushers. Hall has more of a straight one cut and go style, where as Walker is a combination of Alvin Kamara and Javonte Williams. Hall can wiggle behind the line of scrimmage, so don't think he can't change directions, but once he hits the hole, he is off the to the races. Walker will change rushing lames on a dime and is a huge playmaker. The changing of the guard is coming at RB, and guys like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey will all soon be falling out of the top 5, and I firmly believe that both of these rushers could replenish some of the top 3-8RB vacancies.
For now, I almost consider both of these guys equals, but Hall has the better shot at total season-long domination, as he has a hand on the starting gig in New York. Maybe he will still share some work, but the feel is that he is the lead dog, even if it's going to start out kind of 60/40 ish... Walker I liked better, by a touch, heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, but the Jets are a tad closer to being a very potent offense, so Hall could have the slight fantasy edge.
Hall is the better rookie prospect. For now. I think Hall wins leagues for fantasy owners in 2022. But, just because Walker appears to be not in the same exact position to start (like Hall is), don't rule out a Week 4 emergence as the league back, or even as late as Week 6-7... be patient with Walker, and start drafting him in Round 6 or later to protect yourself from any risk of situation/coaching. In Round 6-7 or 8, Walker can win leagues in redraft.
Update: 6/17/22
Tony Pollard has the talent and elusiveness to drop top 5-10RB numbers per start. The key phrase is "per start". He is the kind of runner, especially in that Dallas offense, that can average over 4.7-5.0 yards-per-carry. He can catch, he's quick and he's hungry. He also gets drafted around 90th overall, meaning he's looked at, by most people, as mainly a handcuff to Ezekiel Elliott, or a deep bench RB.
It's tough to know if Elliott is going to stay healthy in 2022, or for how long. Tony Pollard is clearly the better running back at this stage in Zeke's career. Elliott has near 1500 NFL carries to his name, which is far above any other relevant running back currently in the NFL. That's an insane workload and logic suggests that Zeke can't possibly holdup in 2022 if fed starter volume all year long. The problem is, what if Zeke gets dialed back on carries and manages to stay healthy all season, and thus Pollard never fully gets unleashed in 2022? Think Alexander Mattison during a year where Dalvin Cook misses zero games. That's the situation here, Pollard will have to unseat Elliott (which is possible, to an extent, but the tougher path due to team loyalty) or gets hurt (the more likely scenario)... then it's Pollard season once he gets starter touches.
So, you're probably asking... if the job isn't Pollard's to lose, and there is a world where Elliott could stay healthy and kind of linger all season long, what is to like about Pollard, Smitty?
Answer: Talent and ADP.
Tony Pollard can't be drafted to be a RB2 for your fantasy team, not yet anyway... Not with Elliott healthy and slated to start Week 1. This is a home run Bold Prediction, but he's a sleeping giant type... Grab Pollard anywhere in the 85-95 overall range, which has him raking around RB32-35. Even if Elliott defies the odds in 2022, and stays healthy, and is in Pollard's way all year long, Pollard should easily earn his 85-95 overall ADP. Meaning, the risk is baked into his ADP and cost of entry. Pollard can be a flex option during bye weeks, he can help you when your starters are banged up... and he can win you a league if his number is called to start for the Cowboys in 2022.
Update: 6/5/2022
This one may not happen right away, but at some point during the 2022 season, I fully expect Rachaad White to take over the starting running back job in Tampa. I know that many of you probably like Leonard Fournette, as he is an underdog that rose back up from the fantasy dead from his Jacksonville days... in fact, he was just extended by Tampa and is currently/firmly cemented into the starting role in Tampa... I get that White isn't a lock to rise up and snag the gig away from Fournette's grasp. That said, it doesn't take long to understand that White is more talented than Fournette on many levels, one of those levels being catching the football.
Take a few minutes to watch White's highlights from college. If you haven't seen his film before, you will be blown away. His ability to break tackles, navigate into open spaces, and find the end zone... it's all unreal. He is a taller version of Alvin Kamara. Look for yourself:
If you can't see elite Alvin Kamara-ability when you watch his highlights, I am not sure what to say. Maybe I'd say 'watch again' or check your internet connection.. there is no better receiving back in this 2022 NFL Draft Class than White. And, he is a between the tackles guy as well, don't let his receiving skills put him in a box as if he can't be a between the tackles beast. The truth is, though, he'd likely be a better 900 and 900 rusher, much like Kamara. That's how he'd thrive! That kind of usage would also allow for Fournette to stay involved, which would give White a greater shot at doing huge things this current season. I'm not saying he will be a 900/900 runner this season, I'm saying he can start looking like that kind of player at some point. Hopefully sooner vs. later, though. I'd love to see him total 1,400 yards and be a 700/700 type of rusher.
White is hungry for touches, and he made it known the moment that he arrived in Tampa that he was there to start. He does not want to be a back-up. Given that Tom Brady is a driving force behind the team upgrading the pass-catching situation in Tampa, you can bet that Brady is going to be very interested in giving White a chance to get involved early. Fournette is not the pass-catching answer in that Tampa RB room... he just isn't. Once/if White grabs ahold of the PPR action, all he has to do is slowly pull in more and more every-down work. From there, talent should win out.
Per start, Rachaad White can be a top 10RB in fantasy football 2022.
Updated: 8/12/2022
Honestly, Dalton Schultz has the upside to be TE2 or TE3 overall in 2022. Dak Prescott loves the guy, and his TD potential is easily in the 10-13 range. Last season, Schultz pulled in 78 receptions, 808 receiving yards and 8TDs. With Amari Cooper in Cleveland, even though I do like the rookie Tolbert, I think Schultz could absorb a grip more in all categories (in 2022)... so, I predict Schultz pulls in this stat line in 2022: 88 receptions, 1040 receiving yards and 12TDs.
I have been hyping him up since January, in a major way, on my YouTube Channel. So, his ADP has been climbing. He is still a smash in rounds 6-7, which you may or may not see in some leagues. He goes super high in some leagues, and does fall in the 6-7 round territory in other leagues. Like with any player, the later you get the player, the more the upside. So, shoot for him in 6-7 and know that he can win leagues from that area.
If you don't know who Isaiah Likely and Jody Fortson are, you're not alone. Let's start with Likely.
Isaiah Likely (BAL/TE)
Likely is the backup TE in Baltimore, and he is a rookie. He is a monster at 6-4, 240 pounds, and he exploded in his preseason game against the Cardinals catching 8 balls for 100 yards and 1TD. Preseason should be looked at casually, no doubt, but the Ravens love this kid and he just looks special. It's one thing to have a big stat line and look decent-to-good doing the damage on the field... it's another to look like an absolute monster, which is what we are talking about in this case. With the Ravens trading Hollywood Brown to Arizona this off-season, the team is in need of some trusted pass catching, and while Mark Andrews isn't giving up any of his production, the team has made it very clear that Likely will be involved early and often in 2022. This isn't a case where he vanishes to the bench after a nice preseason... in my opinion.
If you are in a dynasty league, go to your waiver wire right this second and pick the man up if available. And, in very large redraft leagues, it is NOT crazy to draft this kid as a backup TE in 2022.
Prediction: Andrews will face all kinds of defensive focus and it's not crazy to imagine a world where he takes harder hits, misses some time, or just shares a spotlight (to a degree) with the rising Likely... I'm going to say that Likely scores like a top 10TE in 2022, which means he will be one of the biggest steals at the TE position in 2022.
Jody Fortson (KC/TE)
Ok, so this is similar to what I just said up above, but maybe to a bigger degree. Meaning, the loss of Tyreek Hill (just like BAL traded away Hollywood) will have defenses focusing on Travis Kelce in 2022, and he could be taking bigger hits, facing more double teams, and he is getting up there in age. It is not crazy at all to expect some missed games at some point, right? That 'season' will eventually come, where Kelce misses a grip of games. I have a funny feeling that this is the season that he misses some time, and his long, long string of 15-16 game seasons comes to an end. He has played nine seasons in the NFL, his last eight seasons were all 16-game seasons... but one, which was 15 games. That's insane. One could say, 'well, he just does not get hurt, why predict it now?' That's a solid argument for sure, but he turns 33 this year, so even without more defensive attention and harder hits, decline is maybe in the cards anyway.... and, the emergence of Jody Fortson feels like a blessing in disguise. Patrick Mahomes loves this kid, and that is very important to this equation.
I predict either Isaiah Likely or Jody Fortson becomes the TE monster grab of 2022. One will shock fantasy worlds and become a top 10TE.
Date Written: 2/5/2022
Wow. This kind of talk is ruffling feathers on YouTube, as I have talked-up Trey Lance like this, at this level of expectation, on many of my YouTube shows thus far in February. And, so many are suggesting that it is crazy talk. Well, it is time to double down, as it's Bold Prediction season, baby!
Trey Lance will not only be a top 5-6QB in fantasy football 2022... I firmly believe he will be the top QB in the entire NFC. This can be measured a bunch of different ways, I get it, and maybe some will agree based on fantasy and some will agree based on feel... Now, this piece of the prediction is dependent on Aaron Rodgers getting traded into the AFC, and as of this write-up, he is still a Green Bay Packer with all kinds of people thinking he will stay in Green Bay in 2022. I disagree with all of those people, and I think the news starts unfolding soon suggesting that ARod is as good as gone. I think he either retires or gets his trade, the trade that he wanted last year (keep in mind he held out through a big part of last season because he did not want to return to Green Bay at all, but came back under the condition that the Packers would let him out of his contract after 2022); however, the thinking is that he kept that single year not to stay with Green Bay, but to ensure that the Packers could trade him and get something for him. I firmly believe that Rodgers and the Packers agreed that they would trade ARod after 2021 (so now). If they go back on their word, he will just simply retire and the Packers will get nothing in return. Ok, so this isn't an ARod write, so I'll get back to Lance talk..
I know most are going to call me crazy for suggesting that a sophomore like Lance can climb into top 5-6 fantasy QB numbers (Burrow is a sophomore by the way), and I know most will say I'm even crazier for suggesting that he will be the top QB in the entire NFC. But, with Rodgers leaving, as I mapped out above, and with Tom Brady retiring (and Russell Wilson could potentially be traded)... that leaves Matthew Stafford (good-to-great, yet not elite), Dak Prescott (good, yet not elite) and Kyler Murray (great, but stumbles easy if he loses Hopkins and any weapons at all).... even if Wilson stays in SEA, or gets traded inside the conference to let's say Washington, Trey can still easily be King of the NFC, as the 49ers, with Lance replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, will be the most put together team in the entire conference (one could argue the Rams share this claim). Plain and simple, and this is coming from a Cardinals fan. The 49ers, the Rams and the Cardinals... these, in my opinion, are the top three teams in the entire NFC, and all live inside the same division (the NFC West)... that's crazy. The NFC West is the toughest division in the entire NFL, and just like in 2021-2022, the NFC West will likely send three teams to the Playoffs in the upcoming 2022-2023 season. The NFC Championship game, the last two teams left, were the Rams and 49ers, so it already just happened. The top two teams in the entire NFC were both those teams.
Trey Lance has a cannon of an arm, he has mobility, and most importantly, he has one of the most, if not the most, potent offenses in the NFL. One may not feel this way about the 49ers, as Jimmy G held it back... but with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Eli Mitchell, and a stellar-capable defense, the 49ers will look much more dangerous in 2022 than they did in 2021, and that's saying a lot considering they were one of the last four teams standing in 2021-2022.
I know most will say Lance isn't ready, which makes me laugh. I know most will say that Lance still needs to learn the playbook, which also makes me laugh. I know most say 'you can't call a kid that hasn't played but a small handful of games a top 5-6QB', but the thing is... I can. And, I will. I have done it before with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen... and Joe Burrow... I did it in years past with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott (to lesser degrees of predicting, but I predicted both of their rises before either were actually even named starters for their teams; both were reaches to be starters). My Mahomes predictions was ABSOLUTELY BOLDER than this one (if I'm being honest), so when people tell me it's not responsible to make such claims about Lance, I laugh. I laugh that people cannot see the difference between this situation and every other situation before it, as no sophomore QB has ever walked into this many weapons and this kind of situation with this kind of defense (on top of the division being thinned out).
Get ready for HUGE numbers for Trey Lance in 2022, and we are talking near 700-900 rushing yards, 7-10 rushing TDs, and well over 3400 passing yards, with 30-ish passing touchdowns.
Dynasty and Trade Tips: Trade for Lance now before he sees an even bigger increase in value, as he probably did see an increase the minute Jimmy G fell short in the NFC Championship game against the Rams. His value went up instantly. However, there is still some doubt hanging over his head, and people see this prediction of mine above as so outlandish, clearly there is still tons of upside in terms of cost of entry. As for where to draft him in 2022, redraft and dynasty, watch the below videos... but know that he needs to be drafted well outside of top 5QB value.. for as long as you can get away with it. ADPs will be your guide, just as soon as good ADP data is produced via lots of 2022 mock drafts.
Most Important: Know that if you want to wait on a QB in 2022, and not grab a Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert or Josh Allen, this is the cheapest option that gives you close to that fire power. Lance, right now, won't cost you anything close to a 3-5 round pick, whereas those guys will cost that. Could Lance's ADP rise to the 5-6 range? Sure, and we can address it then... but as long as he continues to cost 'rounds' cheaper value than the names I just mentioned, he is a bargain. ADP will be your guide all off-season, and ADP data will start looking consistent in March.
Watch this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMasFvGES4
đź‘ŽÂ Bold Predictions (Busts)
No running back in the history of the NFL has EVER become (or returned) to a top 15RB after a torn Achilles tendon. Ever. Basketball players have, NFL players at other positions have returned to form, but never has a running back ever returned to form, or top 15RB status, after tearing an Achilles.
Why? The Achilles tendon is responsible for explosion, and when you rupture your Achilles, you never really get back that full explosion, at least not within a handful of years. Deonta Foreman and Marlon Mack are the most successful recovery cases in the NFL, and while both are currently in the league, they are not elite by any means, and it took both forever to get back to where they currently are.
Those that think Cam Akers will return to pre-injury form will likely be extremely disappointed. He looked awful rushing back late last season, and he did just that.. he rushed back. It was reckless, it proves that the Rams are willing to throw him to the wolves, and it proves that Cam is exactly what I said he was prior to him tearing the Achilles... reckless with his body. To rush back around 6 months recovered is reckless. It makes no sense and it most likely, in my humble opinion (full of 20 years of experience but also admittedly guess work), lessened the odds of his Achilles ever fully recovering to form. Meaning, he rushed back and who knows what kind of damage that rushing back did to his shot at fully gaining back his explosion.
Most rushers experience all kinds of problems and lower body injuries that first year back from an Achilles injury, so given I coined Cam (prior to his Achilles and heading into his second season) as the biggest injury risk and avoid for all 2021 RBs, I think it's pretty safe to say that I don't see how an injury-prone rusher can hold off injury during this uphill battle that has never been won before by an RB.
At 3rd-round ADP, which is often where Cam goes... pass on Cam. Take a Travis Etienne. Take a Breece Hall. Grab a WR like AJ Brown.
3/1/2022: Derrick Henry will bust in 2022. Why? It comes down to mileage - as well as size. You hear all the time, "King Henry is just build different". This is accurate. He is. His size and strength make him a force in the NFL. However, that size will also bring on a speedy decline when the drop-off actually occurs. And, unfortunately, that drop-off point is here.
Running backs that rush over 2,000 yards historically break. Of the seven that have crossed the 2k mark, only Barry Sanders survived to play at the same level the season after. Even in the cases where runners still played decently-well, their numbers were essentially cut in half. And, mostly because the player broke. Rushing for 2,000 yards does something to the human body. Henry did play well for nearly half of the 2021 NFL season, but he broke, as history foreshadowed that he would. Some will call Henry's foot injury a freak injury, but I say it was an inevitable breakdown of a body that just can't move past a 2,000-yard workload.
On top of the 2,000-Yard Curse, there is something called the 371-Carry Curse, which essentially suggests that if you rush the football over 371 times in a single NFL season, you break and never return to form.
Do you remember Larry Johnson? How could you not? After Priest Holmes’ electric career ended abruptly, Johnson exploded onto the fantasy football scene dropping the following seasons in order:
2005: 336 rushes for 1,750 yards (343 rec yards) and 21 total TDs
2006: 416 rushes for 1,789 yards (410 rec yards) and 19 total TDs
..so that’s two amazing seasons in a row, right? LJ is remembered as one of the best fantasy football running backs in fantasy football history… so, he surely played more than two elite seasons, right? Wrong. That 416 carry-season above (2006) was Johnson's second monster year, but as you can see, he crossed that dreaded 371-carry mark, and his next season was as follows:
2007: 559 yards rushing on eight games.
He rushed for 581 yards that very next season. He rushed for 204 yards and 377 yards in the next two seasons after that. He was NEVER the same after his season with 371+ carries.
Now, some rushers have exceeded the mark, like Ricky Williams, or even Eddie George from the past. The curse has been conquered from time to time, but that dreaded 371-carry total more often than not destroys the running back. Not to mention, the running back doesn't last as long, at all, in today's NFL (much to do with the game getting faster and more aggressive at the earlier ages, which adds more abuse by the time a runner gets to the next level... it trickles down). I'd venture to say that hitting 371 carries today is a much tougher thing to overcome.
Now, let's come full circle. Adding both of these curses together, the 2,000-Carry Curse and the 371-Carry Curse, mixed with Henry being so big that his body takes more abuse than the average rusher when he hits the ground, I find it very hard to imagine that the Titan will have a healthy and productive 2022.
He lost AJ Brown to the Eagles, a big reason the rushing attack has room to run... Ryan Tannehill is creating a toxic situation for himself, and he will likely play badly without AJB catching footballs. I think a Qb change even happens... I think Henry drops off massively in 2022. I believe he also still has plate in his foot, and I firmly believe he lost a step heading into that playoff loss in 2021, something that will make Henry look like he is running in mud.
Could Henry start off 2022 well? Sure, it's possible. But, if you draft him, or own him, sell-high, as he is highly unlikely to stay healthy on his good old 27-carry workload. And, if he doesn't get the volume, he won't be efficient enough to warrant his ADP, as he will have a hard time producing big numbers on something like 17 carries per game (especially with the offense set to be way less efficient without AJB). If he loses that step, it's game over.
Conclusion
In dynasty, stay clear of Henry. If you own him, sell across position (think about an undervalued Jaylen Waddle or doubted DK Metcalf). In redraft, it's my advice to avoid him all together, as it's just a much safer proposition to draft a Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson or a Cooper Kupp vs a Henry, and that's where you'd have to take Henry to own him in 2022. Give me Javonte Williams or Breece Hall in round 2 instead, and give me the first-round WR. That's my plan of attack and thinking around this topic.
Henry will extremely disappoint in 2022... meaning, he won't even earn 2nd-round value... Â that's my prediction here.
Date: 2/22/22
Dalvin Cook is ultra-talented, there is no denying his upside when healthy and on the field. That said, this guy is always hurt. While he hasn't suffered a season-ending injury since his ACL tear in 2017 (rookie year), he has never played a full season. He missed 5 games in his second season, 2 games in both his third and fourth seasons, and he missed 4 games last season (2021). He has major shoulder issues with a torn labrum, which essentially causes his shoulder to dislocate, where the ball pops out of the socket (as the torn labrum is responsible for holding that ball in the socket). He is a huge risk for future shoulder injuries, and he has all kinds of injury scares each and every season. If you have owned the guy over the last handful of years, you know what I'm talking about, as he is carried off the field, with what looks to be a season-ending injury, at least 2-3 times per year. He usually finds his way back onto the field, escaping disaster, but eventually these scares will turn into more. The guy is a walking injury.
On top of the injury concerns, Cook is still in the middle of a potential domestic violence issue. Accusations surfaced mid-season in 2021, but after both sides of the situation pointed fingers, and Cook got his legal team involved, the situation kind of went dormant and we haven't heard much as of late. But, it may not be resolved. For those blowing this aspect off, keep in mind that when the domestic violence claims emerged last year (mid-season), there was initially a strong sense that he could take a seat for the rest of the season. He obviously was never disciplined, and again, the updates on the situation just kind of stopped. It was a big deal, for sure, but it just kind of went away. For the time being. But, is it all resolved? I don't believe so, and because there are so many unknowns, on what was initially a very, very ugly situation, it's safer to assume the worst vs. assume it's all history.
So issue one is injury concern, and issue two is the off-the-field issue... is there a third issue? Well, yes, he dropped off big-time last season in terms of touchdowns. He scored just 6TDs on the year, and even if he had played 17 games, he would have only scored 7.8TDs on the season. He also had just four 100-yard games. His four big outings were huge ones, with one being a 205-yard performance; however, he had way too many under-performing contests that made him extremely inconsistent, and in some cases a huge weekly liability.
Conclusion
If you own Cook in dynasty, the simple solution is to ensure you have Alexander Mattison, as the duo feels like a top 5-10RB lock. I would trade him across position for a top 5-10WR, though, as Cook can't have many elite years left given his injury history and the fact that he is entering his 6th NFL season in 2022.
However, if we are talking redraft, I suggest that fantasy owners take a different player around where Cook gets drafted, then scoop up Mattison anyway later on during your draft. I just have a funny feeling that both injury and/or off-the-field issues are going to be a big problem for Cook in 2022... if I'm wrong, you won't be upset at this stance because you will be drafting a safer player, like Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Javonte Williams or even Ja'Marr Chase. I know I have a lot of WRs in that group, and I know some of you may feel obligated to go RB around Cook's ADP... I suggest you draft Best Player Available (BPA) and not focus so much on drafting a position. Jefferson and Mattison is a far safer strategy than Cook in 2022. I firmly believe this, and I think those that draft Cook in round 1 of 2022 will live to regret it.
JK Dobbins is coming off an ACL tear. He also is not ready for week 1. We saw what happened with Saquon Barkley last year when he tried to return without any preparation or exposure to hits. It's brutal on the knee, as you have massive swelling and miss all kinds of practices. For an injury-prone player like JK, it's a disaster waiting to happen. Stay clear.
Missing for 2 years, struggling to even be ready for week 1... what is to like? Why buy into his return at all? Lower leg injuries await this man, as compensation injuries usually follow such a return. He isn't ready for Week 1, as he is on the fence for suiting up... you suit up when on the fence for being healthy, you're opening the door to more injuries. He isn't going to stay healthy if you ask me. Too many things have to go perfect, and already, he is banged up. JK Dobbins, MT, both are looking at lots of injuries this season rushing back from their season-ending injuries.
