Update: 1/6/23

Bijan Robinson is my No. 1 overall Dynasty player. Not just for rookies.. he is my top overall player in all of fantasy football. Yes, I realize that’s quite bold considering we don’t know what team he will be playing for, and yes I realize that he has yet to even take an NFL snap; however, that’s why we play the game. And, when you feel that gut feeling about a player, you can sit back and watch it unfold, or you can say, “I’m trusting my gut that this guy is the next LaDainian Tomlinson.”

Is Bijan really Tomlinson-like? Yes and no.

While no running back will ever have the length of career that Tomlinson (and others like him) had, I think Bijan can be as elite during his window of time. That is, whether it’s 4, 5, or 6 years, Bijan can be as good as the best of the best during his window of time, he just won’t have near the same career longevity-wise. Runners use to have until 30 years of age before drop-off was a near certainty. And, at 31 there was almost no shot at being elite-like… so if you entered a season at 30 (not yet 31), you had a shot at being elite for that one more 30-age season. Well, 27 is the new 30, so now runners have from 22-27 to thrive, which can still equate to 5-6 years of elite play.. but, keep this in mind when I say “the next Tomlinson”… he can be as good per season, but because running backs collapse at 27, wide receivers and quarterbacks have the longer-term value in Dynasty. That doesn’t mean you skip over a Bijan if you can draft him, though, proven by my earlier comment that Bijan is my Dynasty 1.1 overall. There is just a lot to consider when selecting between any of the top 10 overall worthy players.

Probably the most-asked question I get right now regarding Bijan, in correlation to my lofty expectations, relates to his landing spot… what if he lands in a horrible location? The great news is that Bijan is the highest ranking rookie running back we’ve seen in quite some time, and his projected draft slot in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft is around 4-9 overall. When teams draft an RB outside of let’s say the top 29 overall, it’s easy to snag a runner when maybe it’s not the most critical need for the team. The cost is low, it’s easy to buy things you don’t 100% need near rounds 2-3. At 4-6 overall, no one is buying a RB if it’s not an EXTREME need, and all of the teams in EXTREME need inside the top 10 overall are great fits for Bijan: AZ, PHI, CAR, LV.

…landing spot should not be a problem. I’m pulling for AZ, as James Conner has been one of the league’s top rushing touchdown leaders, so Bijan could be double-digit TD capable from the jump if in AZ.

Ok, so if you aren’t sure how good this runner is, watch some footage for just five minutes and tell me you don’t see Tomlinson meets Kenneth Walker.

Video footage: https://youtu.be/5Mmtfmqb0MI

Prediction: Bijan Robinson is the No1 overall player in fantasy in most everyone’s eyes once he concluded his rookie year. Well, people that don’t see it this way before week 1 may see it this way 5-6 games into the season. Additionally, I predict that his rookie season is so strong, he finishes top 5 for all RBs in 2023.. he will score double-digit TDs during his rookie campaign.

Update: 1/1/23

Garrett Wilson was a quiet giant during his rookie season. And, as of the time of this write-up (written after Week 17 has concluded), he still has one single 2022 outing left... he flopped in Week 17 (championship week), and unless he explodes in Week 18, there is a strong, strong chance he zips in under the radar in early 2023 fantasy football drafts/rankings.  Zach Wilson is as good as gone in New York, which is fantastic news for Garrett Wilson owners. Zach was awful for him. Zach Wilson was awful for everyone in New York. Is Mike White the answer, though? Maybe not... he struggled in Week 17, but he still has Week 18 to do a little redemption work. That said, even if Mike White isn't the guy in 2023,  Garrett Wilson should be fine, as he has that elite WR1 upside and skill set, the kind of upside and skill set that can develop along with a developing signal caller... the Jets are surely set on bringing in a strong QB option for 2023, as the Jets have a team that can win now. The defense, Breece Hall, the WRs... the only thing needed is a QB. They almost made the playoffs without any sort of consistent QB play, and losing their top 5RB in Breece. QB will be the Jets' off-season mission in 2023.. from the jump.

Let's hope his ADP has him in low-end WR2 territory, a value range he can EXPLODE from, as he has top 5-10WR upside in 2023 and beyond. In Dynasty, I could see Garrett Wilson going in round 2 of early start-up drafts.

2023 Projection: 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards, 10+ TDs

Justin Fields will win leagues in 2023; He will be a top 1-5QB!

Update: 6/18/2023

Justin Fields is being overlooked. Massively! His ADP is unbelievably-cemented into round 5, sometimes round 6... aside from Joe Burrow in round 4 (sometimes early round 5), Fields is the biggest fantasy football steal in 2023. Well, I'd say Jahmyr Gibbs (round 4), Burrow (round 4) and Fields (round 5-6) are my biggest STEALS for 2023 fantasy football in terms of 'ceiling value' at cost of entry. So many people run their mouth about Fields being inaccurate, unable to be a legit gun slinger... it's all nonsense. The guy had zero weapons last year, and even his mediocre weapons were injured, so he was running an entire offense with a skeleton crew (the defense was a skeleton crew as well). Ryan Poles is a great GM, as he trimmed that fat across the board heading into 2022, including moving on from some good players, which was a tough call at the time.. one year later, Poles has now taken all that freed up cash and opportunity and crushed the off-season. Acquiring DJ Moore was just one of many moves... drafting an offensive linemen was another amazing move. This team will do an complete 180 this season, and Fields doubters, including all the analysts slinging out horrible Fields takes, will look foolish here soon. The inaccurate takes on Fields are just plain lazy, as the guy was scrambling around all over the place last season, extending plays, looking amazing.. and, doing so with receivers that were all running impromptu second-chance routes... meaning, it was chaos, none of which was his fault.. he was asked to do a job without important pieces.. And, while scrambling around all over the place, he threw just 11 INTs. Yet, somehow he was this massively inaccurate passer? It makes no sense at all. All that chaos and running around with inaccuracy would lead to a grip of INTs.. Only Boxscore Bobbys suggest he is a mediocre passer. Only Unaware Unger doesn't understand that weapons are needed to do your job fully, and DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, rookie Tyler Scott, and others, will prove this to be true when all is said and done in 2023. Moore stretching the defense out will do wonders for Fields' numbers and the offense. And, a better offense will give the defense better field position. And, a better defense will give the offense better field position. It's a cascading effect, one that will have the offensive line and defense looking unrecognizable. I truly think Fields could run for 1,000+ yards, 8-10TDs, all while passing for well over 3,800 yards and tossing 27-30TDs. Let's call it near 37-38 total TDS with 4,500+ yards to be conservative. Easy. If he's healthy. And, with a stretched out defense, I think Fields runs more efficient (less carries but better YPC) with less hits taken on. Doubt Fields if you want, but I'm telling you... in my gut I see this quarterback being impossible to acquire via trade come Weeks 4-5; many will rank him 1-2-3 overall for 2023 fantasy football quarterbacks go-forward (in that Week 4 on timeframe). Steal him away in round 5! It's one of the biggest bargains in all of 2023 fantasy football.. he will only get better each and every week, too. I heard nothing but "Jalen Hurts isn't accurate, Smitty" comments all off-season last year when I said all of these exact same things about Hurts in round 6 of 2023 fantasy drafts. He was one of our biggest bold prediction success stories last year... where are those people now? Those same people are saying the same ridiculous this about Fields this year, judging his accuracy before he even matures or matures with weapons at his disposal... it's reckless and lazy... next year this will all be laughable. The Bears and Lions will be in a dogfight to win the division. Mark it down!

Chris Olave finally has his quarterback. And, while Derek Carr is not a top 5 gunslinger, he is easily capable of feeding Olave top 10WR numbers in 2023 and beyond. New Orleans is a fantastic landing spot for Carr, as he just fed Davante Adams 100+ receptions for 1500+ yards and 14TDs. Those are serious WR numbers for a WR that was suppose to see a huge decline going from Aaron Rodgers to Carr in 2022. On a side note, Adams is going to see his value take a big dip in 2023 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center in Las Vegas.

As for Olave, he was the best WR in football in terms of air yards prior to Jameis Winston getting hurt. Meaning, when Winston was in the lineup last year, during Olave's rookie season, Olave led the NFL in air yards. Once Winston got hurt, Olave was able to transform his game and do great things via shorter passing plays and sideline plays, proving his versatility. Think of this like breaking your dominate arm and having to use your non-dominate arm. You learn to use your non-dominate arm and when your dominate arm is fully healed, you are better for it.. you have made a weakness a strength. Olave stopped stretching the field, his specialty with Winston, and started perfecting other parts of his game when the QB rotation started to occur. Carr will get this offense back to slinging it, and while some may doubt him, keep in mind that Las Vegas is a death trap for talent, and they always have a bottom 4 defense. Always. Derek Carr never had a good defense for his entire career as a Raider, in both Oakland and Las Vegas. Carr now has a top 10 defense in New Orleans, and that means great field position. Carr is judged too harshly for his time as a Raider.

Olave has top 5-10WR written all over him.. 10+ TDs is certainly in the cards, as is 1300+ yards and 100 receptions. Mix in some solid rushing stats for a WR.

Date: 3/31/2023

It's a lazy take to suggest that all ACL tears are the same, even if we are talking specifically about running backs. Every ACL tear is different, from amount of time to recover, to age of player... all of these things, including situation, factor into play when trying to predict a running backs likelihood of speedy recovery from an ACL tear.

Breece Hall suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season, and he didn't get unleashed into the starting line-up until Week 4. So, technically he had just 4 games where he started, and in the 4th game he only carried the ball 4 times before tearing his ACL (yet in that game he had 72 yards and 1TD on those 4 carries).

Here is his 2022 game log:

Those stats in Weeks 4-7 are phenomenal. If we extrapolate his four game stretch as starter in New York in those weeks, Hall was on pace for 1491 rushing yards and 17TDs, all with projecting at 25 receptions for 497 receiving yards. Now, it's not the smartest way to project taking 4 games and stretching that out over 17 games, but at the same time it's important to note that I included his Week 7 contest where he had just the 4 carries for 72 yards and 1TD (with no receiving stats).

I know most will be scared off by the ACL tear, but Hall is one of the youngest ACL tears we've ever seen from a runner that was arguably already in position to be a top 3RB in the league. He was barely 21 at the time of the tear, and that is the most important factor in returning to form at lightning speed. Many RBs from the past have entered the NFL coming off an ACL tear. Think Jamaal Lewis... Priest Holmes. These young guys recovered in speedy fashion, and the fact that Hall's ACL tear was a very clean tear (unlike Javonte Williams' tear, which had two torn ligaments), Hall is setup beautifully for a monster year one bounce-back. Hall is also said to be ahead of schedule, something I predicted months back, and my next prediction is that we hear phrases like "Hall looks like he never tore his ACL" being kicked around very soon.

Saquon Barkley (2021) and JK Dobbins (2022) were both NOT ready for Week 1, but they were rushed along. Hall will likely enter camp ready, and assuming he suffers no setbacks, he should most certainly be full-go by Week 1. There is a big difference in readiness and ability to not have all kinds of crazy swelling when you 'are NOT ready' for Week 1 and play and when you 'are ready' for Week 1 and play. Too many ACL-recovering RBs, especially ones that are not 21 like Hall, are rushed back when they aren't fully up to speed entering Week 1. This never ends well and it usually leads to both swelling and compensation injuries, like Barkley in 2021. Barkley was great in 2022, which was 2 years removed from his ACL tear.. but, Barkley's 2021 season (his first year back from the injury) was disastrous.

Hall has Aaron Rodgers supporting him in 2023, spreading out defenses (which gives Hall more open rushing lanes as he gets back to normal explosion)... ARod will also rely on Hall much like he did Aaron Jones back in Green Bay... this means that Hall should have a spectacular receiving season in 2023.

I predict Breece Hall has this kind of stat line in 2023: 1300+ rushing yards and 10+ TDs, with 45-50 receptions for 400+ yards and 2-3TDs.

Updated: 4/5/2023

Tony Pollard has so much upside it's beyond exciting. In 2022, Pollard produced the following stat line (all while sharing carries with Ezekiel Elliott):

Those were incredible numbers considering the timeshare in Dallas last season. His 12TDs were especially incredible. With Zeke gone in 2023, the starting gig 'should' be solely Pollard's job to hold. He does need to escape both the NFL Draft (the drafting of Bijan Robinson or a Zach Charbonnet) and free agency (Kareem Hunt is still out there unsigned as of this write-up)... however, once those situations are in the rear view mirror, a lot of Pollard doubters could start getting on board. So, act preemptively... trade for him in dynasty and do it now. Even in redraft, though, he will likely only climb near the 3.01 territory even once his value increases. For now, though, he seems to be lingering around 3.5-4.02 ADP ranges.

He can be a top 5RB. Even if he isn't, he almost certainly repeats last year's numbers, which would easily earn you back his draft value. With ease! With even a tad more work on the ground and via the air, Pollard should have no problem producing the following stats:

1200 rushing yards and 10TDs, with 55+ receptions for 500 receiving yards and 2-4TDs

..that easily puts him in prime position to finish as a top 7 overall player and top 5RB.

The risk is all baked in EVEN IF the Cowboys draft a semi-decent rookie, or bring in a Kareem Hunt. The only thing that could totally rain on this parade would be the drafting of Bijan Robinson or Zach Charbonnet... both are way more unlikely than likely, so trust in Pollard.

Date: 3/22/2023

Many will suggest it's reckless to like rookies as much as I do. I really don't care to be honest. I only care about helping you all win, and the best piece of advice I can give anyone when it comes to rookies is this... don't let previous rookie letdowns affect your evaluation of new incoming rookies (ex, don't let CEH busting make you second-guess believing big-time in the upcoming rookie class). Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall both balled out when healthy, and anyone still hanging onto CEH letdowns is just worried. We call those people "worried Williams".. Gibbs is smaller, as he measured in at 199 pounds and 5-9. That isn't big. But, keep in mind that Priest Holmes was 5-9, and while he was more like 211 pounds, Gibbs has plenty of time to put on weight at the next level. He will. Regardless, he is fast, elusive, and he had a great combine. He is arguably the best receiving back in the entire 2023 rookie running back pool. He also should get drafted in the 26-40 overall territory during the 2023 NFL Draft, which should put him in a nice spot to start right out of the gate (as high draft capital like that usually spells a dire need at the position by the drafting team).

Situation will surely ease minds of those worrying about workload and physical size for Gibbs... If in let's say Cincy, Philly, the sky is the limit for Gibbs. And, one of my favorite draft strategies in 2023 is to go heavy at WR in rounds 1 and 2, and Joe Burrow in round 3... then, snag Gibbs and Zach Charbonnet in the 4 and 8 rounds, and get Alvin Kamara around 8-9 as well. That combo is filthy given how you can stack let's say a Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Joe Burrow in rounds 1-3.

Projections: As an Alvin Kamara-type of rusher, you don't want Gibbs getting 1300 rushing yards.. he's best served as a monster hybrid-type, which would equate to a 900ru and 900rec rusher... with 8-12TDs and 50-60 receptions (eventually 70+).

Date: 3/27/2023

Christian Watson could be a monster in 2023. He is losing Aaron Rodgers, sure, but Jordan Love is solid enough to feed him top 10WR numbers. Maybe higher.

There is a certain level of risk that Love is not successful, know that... however, given that Love is being handed a fully developed Watson (who Rodgers fast-tracked), I think Love will look 100x better than he would have last year being thrusted into the starting role without a veteran WR presence. Watson, under Rodgers' command, matured at light speed, and Love should have no problem force-feeding Watson, and even if the Packers are playing from behind a lot, that just spells more 3rd- and 4th-quarter passing.

Not unlocked until Week 10, Watson exploded in Weeks 10 through 13, scoring 8TDs in four games. No, that isn't a typo... he literally pulled in 7TD receptions and ran for 1TD in those 4 weeks. That rushing TD was a 46-yard rushing touchdown, too. Watson is such a dynamic rusher... he had a second rushing touchdown last year early on during the season... He is Deebo Samuel-ish to a degree... not usage-wise, but he performed like Deebo when given the chance, as he ran the ball seven times for 80 yards and 2TDS.. those are unreal rushing stats for a rookie wide receiver.

On the year, Watson pulled in 41 receptions for 611 yards and 9 total TDs. Again, despite the risk in trusting Jordan Love on a small sample size, I fully expect Watson to be leaned on during his sophomore year and I expect him to produce something along the lines of: 80+ receptions, 1200 receiving yards and 9TDs, along with 130 rushing yards and 1-2TDs.

Update: 4/15/23

Drake London is a sleeping giant at the wide receiver position. Most will speak to his questionable quarterback situation in order to talk down his upside and potential, but this is a mistake. Many wide receivers can survive mediocre quarterback play, but it's quite premature to suggest that Desmond Ridder cannot become a decent QB. Decent is all he needs to be, too. And, just look at the numbers London dropped once Ridder lined-up under center:

Technically, that 95 receiving yards in Week 13 was not with Ridder, but Weeks 15-18 were all Ridder-to-London action... And, for London to finish the season with yardage totals of 70, 96, 47 and 120 yards, he screams "sleeping giant" and "on-the-rise" walking into this season. If you extrapolate London's yardage and reception totals from Weeks 13-18 (five games straight then stretched over 17 games), he would have totaled 1,455 yards and 100+ receptions. Given Ridder is only going to get better, it's not crazy to use this extrapolated data to predict what London could do on a 17-game season. Keep in mind that Kyle Pitts wasn't even on the field when London and Ridder started connecting... things should greatly improve with Pitts keeping defenses honest. Also, Ridder will prep all off-season as the team's starter.

Even if we assume Ridder has a talent level between the current Matthew Stafford and the version of Ridder that we saw last year (which is his likely floor), London should be force-fed into that 90+ receptions, 1300+ yards and 7+ TD in 2023. But, he has upside for more. That makes him league-winning.

Update: 5-15-23

Dalton Kincaid is an absolute monster in the making. Not only was he arguably the best TE prospect in what is considered the best Tight End class to come out of college in over a decade, Kincaid landed in the most ideal of ideal locations. The Bills is the perfect situation for a thousand reasons. For starters, the Bills and Josh Allen sling more touchdowns than most any offense in the league. So, by default, Kincaid will be subject to enormous touchdown numbers no matter how quickly he develops his NFL game. He will be spoon fed. Secondly, and most importantly, Kincaid will play the wide receiver position early and often. Some believe that Dawson Knox won't really leave the field all that much, and while the 'casual' fantasy owner will appear alarmed, those that know what time it is realize that Buffalo is going to use Kincaid as the WR2 in this offense. I'm not saying he will officially change positions from tight end to wide receiver, but Kincaid plays like a WR, he runs routes like a WR... Buffalo is going to use him as a WR. And, Knox's presence doesn't mean less playing time, it means that the team won't ask him to do much blocking... they will ask him to run wide receiver routes.

It wouldn't shock me one single bit if Kincaid is the team's #2WR at season's end, ahead of Gabe Davis and others. It wouldn't shock me one single bit if Kincaid dropped 900-1000 yards (at a minimum), pulled in 70-80 balls and scored 8-10TDs... as a rookie. To me, this is a top 1-3 dynasty TE in the making. His situation couldn't be more ideal.

Update coming since Charbonnet drafting!

Date: 4/24/23

Question: Can Kenneth Walker be a top 5RB in 2023? The correct answer is yes. Even if you have your doubts, for whatever reason, you have to admit that top 1-5RB upside is actually present when it comes to Walker. So, my next question is: Why on earth is Walker falling into the middle of the 2nd-round (let alone sometimes falling into the 20-25 overall range)?

2022 Season Stats

Walker rushed the ball 228 times in 2022 for 1,050 yards, 9TDs, while pulling in 27 receptions for 165 yards. When you consider that Walker didn't get the starting gig in Seattle until Week 6, you start to understand that Walker actually had a phenomenal season. He finished last season with three-straight 100-yard games, he had three 2TD outings and six games with 3 or more receptions (with an 8-reception game in Week 10 and a 5-reception game in Week 15). That last part is important because many suggested he would not be a good pass-catcher at the pro level. When you consider what it takes to become an elite NFL pass-catcher, Walker is the ideal PPR candidate. I could argue, easily, that Walker is the best runner in the NFL in open space. He gravitates toward open areas of the field better than any runner in the league, he has great hands, and he has tremendous cutback ability and change of direction. This is a 60+ reception capable running back in his second year, and he has the upside for more, especially in 2024 and beyond. Think Ezekiel Elliott when he entered the NFL... he did not get used in college in the passing game, at least not enough, and people rushed to judgement calling him a weak pass catching prospect (the same thing people said about Walker). Walker is about to show doubters, and opposing defenses, that he was born to make plays on all levels... in the pass and run games... He's a play making monster in the making.

With a year under his belt and a full 17-game starting season ahead, Walker could rush for 1300-1400 yards, pull in 50-60 receptions, 400 or so receiving yards, and 13-15 total touchdowns.

Walker can not only be a top 5RB in 2023, he can be top 1-2. He is elusive like no other and he's just scratching the surface in Seattle (a very strong team in the NFC West).

Given that this kind of talent, with top 5RB upside, is sinking into the middle-to-late 2nd-round... I think I can safely say that Kenneth Walker is the biggest steal in 2023 inside the top 50 overall.

If his stats don't impress you when you look at them in extrapolated fashion (over 17 games, starting), the eye test should tell you all you need to know. Walker looks the part, he has the situation... he will win leagues in 2023.

Tank Dell will be an ELITE WR3 in fantasy football 2023.

Update: 6-13-23

Tank Dell (his first name is actually "Nathaniel" if searching for him when drafting) has so much upside and most of your league will NOT see him coming. In fact, his current ADP is in round 17. And, that's drafting with people neck-deep in daily best ball leagues, so your average grandma in your league won't have a clue who he even is.

So, who is he?

Tank Dell is so good it's crazy to me that no one knows his name. It's equally shocking that people that know his name have ZERO clue what he did last year. In 2022, Tank Dell was one reception away from the 'triple crown' in all of 2022 college football.

Dell did this (in regards to the triple crown):

• 1) Led the nation in receiving yards
• 2) Led the nation in receiving TDs
• 3) Finished second in receptions with 109 and Charlie Jones had 110

That is unbelievable production from a receiver that passes my eye test, and Dell does pass the eye test for me. When I watch Dell play, I see Antonio Brown. His routes are crispy, his quickness is elite, and his drive and determination will be unmatched. He and Texans QB CJ Stroud hit it off during combine week and Stroud told the Texans to draft Dell. The two have a special rapport already and I think we will see a sleeping giant rise up in Dell. Now, Dell is 5-8, 165-170 pounds, which is his red flag of concern, but I am not worried. He checks every other box and has proven ability off the line.. I have not one single concern about his size and I think he will quickly develop at the next level.

Let me leave you with this, on top of some footage to watch below... Dell is not a lock for this... know this... but, it wouldn't shock me one single bit if at the end of the day Tank Dell was every bit as good as the top 1-2 WRs from this draft class.

Heading into the Week 1 Thursday Night tilt, these two have some amazing value. I think they can arguably be one of the best RB2 duos (cheaply had) in fantasy football 2023. These two have been on The Fantasy Football Show Moon Men List for months.