LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY KEEPER DECISIONS

[Charles FoxParticipant 573]

Admittedly this convoluted.

This is an 8-team keeper (MAX 3) league that is expanding back to 10 teams, which is what it was since 2005. Had to kick some ne’re-do-wells to the curb 2 years ago.

It is NoPPR with 15 player rosters and all TDs = 6. We also have 1 any-injury slot.

Starting requirements are QB / RB / RB-WR / WR / WT-TE / TE / DST / K

Annual keeper choice is A or B – Keeper cost is based upon the round they were drafted in the previous year EXCEPT that continuously kept players ‘cost is set by ADP. The purpose of this is to emphasize the redraft while rewarding owners who do the homework.
A. Keep 1 with a cost of a pick between rounds 1-5 PLUS 1 with a cost of a pick between rounds 6-15
B. Keep 3 all with a cost or a pick between rounds 6-15 – This is usually what I shoot for.

We will hold an expansion draft a few days (maybe on August 11) before the final keeper decisions are due on August 15. Each current team will protect 1 player during the expansion draft, but will not lose more than 1 player

Draft is on August 17. Player / Draft Pick trading is allowed prior to final keeper declarations. I have sold players for picks or pick-bumps many times. I guess trading is allowed between the keeper declarations and the draft, but that has never happened and would be very complicated.

Because it was 8-teams last season the rosters are LOADED. Because it is NoPPR I rarely keep QBs, WRs or TEs unless their pick cost is between rounds 13-15. Because there is first-come-first-served free agency during the off-season, I always raid the free agent pool for any RB that is a potential keeper. I did not have 11 RBs last season.

Here is my current roster – Player / Keeper cost
Jordan Love / 15
Breece Hall / 4 – POTENTIAL EXPANSION DRAFT PROTECTION
Travis Etienne / ADP
Alvin Kamara / 7
Jonathan Taylor / 8 – POTENTIAL EXPANSION DRAFT PROTECTION
Zach Charbonnet / 9
Tyjae Spears / 9
De’Von Achane / 15
Zamir White / 15
D’Andre Swift / 15
Ty Chandler / 15
Keaton Mitchell / 15
Sam LaPorta / 15
Justin Jefferson / 1
Ja’Marr Chase / 2
Jordan Addison / 14

My first instinct is to protect JT and then keep 2 others from Achane, White, and LaPorta. I figure that if I leave Breece unprotected he will get taken in the expansion draft. 4th round value is probably too good to pass. That would leave me with all of my first 7 picks. I pick at 1.07 / 2.04

But now I am thinking about protecting Breece and then keeping only 1 from JT, Achane, White and LaPorta. If I protect Breece I will keep him at 4.04 UNLESS I can trade something else to bump down to 4.10. Possibly I can swap my 4.04 and 5.07 for 4.10 and 5.01

I don’t expect Jefferson to be taken in the expansion draft because the team that might take him would have to spend either pick 1.03 or 1.04. They don’t get picks 1.01 or 1.02 because those picks were won via a consolation playoff. This year the bottom 4 teams will play a 3-game round-robin tournament.

Assuming Jefferson is not taken in the expansion draft then I would try to sell him (before the final keeper due date) for a round 1 bump such as my 1.07 for a pick between 1.01 – 1.04 plus maybe a pick swap in a later even numbered round. Possibly I could sell JJ + 1.07 + 4.04 FOR 1.01 + 4.10 which is where I could keep Breece.

Chase might get taken in the expansion draft because his keeper cost would be either 2.07 or 2.08. Only way I see a pick swap there is in a later round.

I would try to sell all the players I don’t intend to keep probably for pick-bumps

Before you shout grandma league, Smitty, this is a league of long-time friends. Even with all my strategizing I have only won 2 Super Bowls

Overwhelmed? Am I talking to hear my head rattle?

Mostly looking for thinking about who to protect. Maybe who I could realistically sell before the final keeper declaration.

[DrOberhoParticipant 42]

JJ /Laporta and Achane

[Charles FoxParticipant 573]

Thanks for your reply. Sorry for that long-winded dissertation.

To be sure, this might be a little more concise

My decision is A or B
A. Protect JT in the expansion draft
1. Gives me the opportunity to keep 3 players likely JT + Achane + LaPorta.
2. If Achane is taken in the Expansion draft then I could decide to only keep 2 players which would be JT and Breece
B. Protect Breece in the expansion draft – Limits me to only 2 keepers, JT or Achane whichever is not taken in the expansion draft

So… JT + Achane + LaPorta OR Breece + JT or Breece + Achane

Of course this is still 7 weeks away. Injuries could change the decisions

• This reply was modified 6 months ago by Charles Fox.

[DrOberhoParticipant 42]

Can you not keep JJ even for a first round pick .

I am not a fan of JT.

I’d go Breece over Achane but they are a coin flip

[Charles FoxParticipant 573]

I could keep JJ but, he would cost me my 1.07. Since it is NoPPR that is too expensive in my opinion.

Chase would be a more likely keeper at my 2.04, but it is still NoPPR.

Plus keeping either WR means I cannot keep Breece because I can only keep 1 player that costs a pick in rounds 1-5

So if I keep either WR my 2nd keeper will be limited to JT (8.04) or Achane (15.07). If I lost Achane in the expansion draft I would be limited to JT, White, LaPorta or Love because I still could not keep Breece (4.04)

I believe that WRs are more easily replaced than Bell-cow RBs such as Breece or JT. Hence I am considering protecting Breece who keeps my 1st 3 picks open for WRs or a QB as I would then keep either JT or Achane. That gives me all of my 5th through 7th round picks.

The keeper rules are complicated BY DESIGN because it makes the owners do the homework. PLUS not all keepers have the same value and I hate leagues where you declare your keepers at no cost to you and then start the draft.

How much BS would it be if I kept JJ, Chase and Breece and then said “Okay, screw you guys and let’s start the draft” Nope you gotta pay fair value to keep players by either drafting well or giving up the player’s ADP if they are kept in successive years.

BTW… ADP applies even if you did not originally have the player on draft day. I kept Etienne last year for my 6th round pick, but, he would probably cost me my 2.04 to keep him this year, as he is currently # 18 at Fantasy Pros. If I dropped or sold Etienne any new owner who got him before the upcoming draft would likewise have to forfeit his 2nd round pick.

While it is a keeper league, it plays more like redraft. I think I am best protecting Breece or JT

• This reply was modified 6 months ago by Charles Fox.

[DrOberhoParticipant 42]

No PPr okay missed that . In that case I do JT Breece and Laporta

[Charles FoxParticipant 573]

Can ONLY keep 2 players if I keep Breece. Can keep 3 if I keep JT.

If I keep Breece then I can keep ONE either JT or Achane, whichever does not get snatched in the expansion draft.

If LaPorta gets taken in the expansion draft then I can keep Breece and add either JT or Achane but not both

[Charles FoxParticipant 573]

@smitty @thefantasyfootballshow

Whaddaya think Smitty? Can only protect 1 player during the expansion draft… Breece for pick 4.04 or JT for pick 8.04?

If I protect Breece I can only keep 1 additional player. Achane or JT whichever does not get taken in the expansion draft.

If I protect JT and Breece does not get taken then I can keep both. But if Breece gets taken I can keep 2 additional players out Achane, LaPorta, Zamir, Addison and Justin Love, ALL of whom would cost me my 14th and 15th picks

• This reply was modified 5 months, 3 weeks ago by Charles Fox.

[Author]

Posts