I rank Breece over CMC go-forward!

Pros for CMC over Breece?

It's easy to pinpoint pros for liking CMC over Breece Hall go-forward. Things like experience and scheme come to mind for almost anyone accessing this situation. He has a proven track record for being the #1 overall runner in the NFL. He has a nose for the end zone, and it's not hard to imagine the 49ers running the ball well, as they are notorious for being one of the best rushing units in the entire NFL. So, the pros are massive and they are convincing.

Cons for CMC over Breece

Injury history is the biggest negative with CMC. He hasn't rushed for 1,000 yards since 2019, which was 3 season ago. He played just 3 games in 2020 and 7 games in 2021. The crazy stat when looking at his career game log is that he has only ever rushed for over 1,000 yards twice.

Now, he's a dual-threat, right? So, why does this matter? Well, for two reasons:

1) SF is a run-heavy team, and if the objective is to 'run' CMC like a workhorse between the tackles, that isn't his game (his only two 1,000-yards seasons were 1,098 yards and 1,387)... and...
2) ..If the 49ers run him like a workhorse, he will get injured fast, as stated above (he played 3 and 7 games in 2020 and 2021).

So, the question is... will Kyle Shanahan retool the 49ers' offense around CMC's need to remain a balanced dual-threat? Or, will he not understand the assignment and try and run CMC into the ground? I blame him for ruining Trey Lance and running him up the gut like a fullback, so you can probably guess that I'm skeptical that he will use CMC correctly.

Another con: That 49ers offense is loaded with talent, and while that sounds exciting on the surface, think about what 'loaded' means. Is Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis loaded? Yes. Is Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon a 'loaded'? Yes. But, what do those two situations have in common? A gunslinger. A top 5 capable passer. Jimmy Garoppolo is nothing close to an elite quarterback, in fact he is nowhere near a top 10QB. So, you can have all of the talent in the world piled up on one roster, but if the facilitator is mediocre, that football isn't getting spread around in SF anywhere close to the way it is in Cincy and Buffalo. Thus, it's like having 100 marbles but a small funnel to drop them into. The point is, big names on one single roster is only good if you can feed all the players. Having Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and a couple very solid runners, that's not necessarily a good thing when evaluating CMC's likelihood of getting massive volume. And, again, if you want to say 'but they can run CMC a lot and that has nothing to do with Jimmy G', well, then my answer again is: He will break if you run him like a ground and pound runner. So, is the opportunity for massive volume really present in SF? I think this is debatable, unlike so many suggest.

Cons for Breece Over CMC

It's only fair to reveal the cons for Breece over CMC. Breece is a rookie. Breece is unproven. His offense is still improving and coming into its own. The track record for Hall, who has done well over the last couple games, is a short one. So, there is risk trying to extrapolate a couple games and paint a season-long (and career-long) picture. I get it. But, those are the cons. The cons are 'you are trying to predict something before it happens' and for some that is bold. I get it. Some need to see things before they buy into said things. Others love to use gut-driven analysis.

Conclusion

Look, one can believe in Breece or CMC go-forward, or both... no one is right. Yet. And, maybe they both ball-out and are 1 and 2 or 2 and 1 go-forward, and maybe both sides are essentially right at the end of the day. But, I will say this... Hall looks like CMC three years ago. He really does. He is match-up proof, proving so when he pulled in 100 yards receiving in Week 5 (off of just 2 receptions). Then, in Week 6 (last week), he ran the ball 20 times for 116 yards and 1TD on the ground. Hall has three-straight games now with 1 rushing TD. He also has 1 receiving TD, which means he has 4 total TDs on the year, and really wasn't utilized in Weeks 1-3. He's a monster. He is RB6 in most all formats with only really being unleashed in Weeks 4, 5 and 6. The Jets are feeding him with 17, 18 and 20 carries in the last 3 games. What is not to love? What pattern do you need to see before you realize this is arguably the new 1.01 overall in fantasy? In 2023, he may very well be the 1.01. In dynasty go-forward, he is the 1.01.

You can trust in the guy named CMC if you want, who missed most of the last two seasons with injury (and is walking into a team that is notorious for injuring their players)... or, trust the young rising stud that I predicted would be a top 5RB before the season began (meaning, it's all going as planned and I think believing in him should not feel 'out of nowhere'). I say trust in Breece.

Final Note: Keep in mind that because most all of the fantasy football world, outside of our community, views CMC > Breece, so the wonderful news is NO ONE should swap the two straight up. YOU CAN GET MORE and you should get more, because fair market value commands it. Please understand this point, because if you come to me and say, 'Smitty, I did it, I swapped my CMC for Breece straight up, are you proud of me?"... I'm going to shake my head if you didn't try to get more, because you can almost always easily get more, like way more... like a Gabe Davis or Michael Pittman or Travis Etienne. Be smart. Now go get 'em!