Bijan Robinson is the RB1; What about CMC?
Bijan Robinson is the RB1 in fantasy football 2023. Many will disagree with me, and many more will suggest that it is drafting him at his maximum ceiling to take him at let's say #3 overall (after JJ and Chase). I disagree. Why?
First off, think back to LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, even Priest Holmes... when you had the 1.01 back in those days, you laughed at everyone in your league. You instantly started off with a HUGE advantage over everyone in your league.. Tomlinson, Faulk, Holmes, their ceilings were nowhere near that 1.01 draft slot... that 1.01 was almost like having two first-round picks.. Those monsters were so far ahead of all other players below them, the owner that was granted the 1.01 back in those days was the likely end-of-season champion. It was near checkmate out of the gate.
Well, that's how I see this playing out for Bijan owners in 2023 and beyond. For the next handful of years, Bijan is going to be a cheat code and he will far exceed his 1.01 draft value. As a rookie, I think he can lead the league in carries, yards and touchdowns, and if he doesn't lead the league in all three categories, I think he lands 2 out of 3 (all while being a top 5 PPR back).. yes, all as a rookie.
The Falcons were the best rushing attack in the NFL in 2023, at least between the tackles. Only the Eagles outproduced them, but most of that is due to Jalen Hurts. If you take Hurts out of the equation, the Falcons were the best. Arthur Smith is a phenomenal rushing architect, and if he can make Tyler Allgeier one of the best runners down the stretch in 2023 (in the last 5 games, the exact 5 games Desmond Ridder commanded last year), just imagine how good that rushing attack in Atlanta will be with Bijan and Kyle Pitts injected into it (keep in mind Pitts was injured last year).
Don't be concerned about Ridder, who had Drake London pacing at about 1300 receiving yards during that month+ stretch at the end of last season. Again, Ridder finally gets to play with Kyle Pitts, he finally gets to have an off-season preparing as the team's starter, and he all of the sudden gets handed the best RB to grace the NFL since Adrian Peterson. Ridder will be effective enough in this offense to not threaten Bijan's absolute 2023 explosion. Disagreeing is fine, but it's a lazy take to assume Ridder fails when his situation improved 5x and he gets to prepare.
Do you like Christian McCaffrey more as the RB1? I get it if you do. But, keep in mind that Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have more injuries at RB and QB than any team in the NFL. And, it's not just bad luck, it's the nature of Shanny's system and scheme. There is a ton of offensive line pulling, linebackers getting blocked by TEs/RBs, it's a system that naturally puts the RBs and QBs in vulnerable positions. Mix that with the fact that CMC was nearly written off by everyone as the RB1 prior to last season beginning.. and what, all of the sudden we are just suppose to bake health back into his value just because he's in a potent system that feels like an amazing fit? I'm not saying CMC is a must-avoid or a for sure bust... but, Bijan is fresh, checks every box ever created for the RB, and his offense will likely run the ball more, and better, than any team in the NFL (despite what uneducated people will say about the Falcons offense)... while injury could strike any young runner (think Breece Hall last year), the odds are in Bijan's favor to smash 15-17 healthy games in 2023. Take him 3rd overall after JJ and Chase and let the haters hate.
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BRob’s QB and defenses getting another crack at their offense in year two limits my expectations. Top 10 – for sure barring injuries; 4-7 is where I see him with players like CMC, Eck, Quon, and my dark horse of Chubby putting a 12+ spot on endzone visits.
Can he hold up running into walls vs. college where he wasn’t used like he should have been?
Can Ridder be servicable?
Can Drake take the next step?
Can Pitts not bust again this year?
Do I hope I am wrong – yes – as I have a shot at (Dynasty) trading for the 1.01 spot as I have the 1.02 and lots of draft cap early in the draft.
ATL was the best landing spot for Bijan. Best rushing team in the league. Nothing about ATL should worry anyone. It will only be better in 2023. Look at this:
So, once again, I have a contending team this year in a 10-Team NoPPR league that cannot start more than 2 RBs each week. I managed to trade for 1.01 (sold Saquon) and 1.02 (sold Hopkins, Gesicki and my 1.08) last year and have my doubts that I can land either of those picks this year. I THOUGHT I was all set with Breece and Walker.
I will try to trade for 1.01 again this year by selling the farm right before I have to cut (or sell) 8 players just before our Labor Day draft. I will keep Breece, Pollard and Dobbins. All my other RBs are on the block to get Bijan. They include Walker, Cook, Kamara, Mattison and Zeke as if I can get anything for him. I can also include Mooney and Claypool, so maybe the 1.01 owner will bite on something. Wish the Cook and Kamara situations were resolved. I can afford to overpay, we will have to see just how much.
.This is KILLING me.
lol, you always have so many stacked teams. Nice work, pal..