Devon Achane to the moon?

If you’ve been on top of the news over the past day or two, then you know that Raheem Mostert just signed a two-year extension just under $10 million… well, knee-jerk Neds everywhere will likely look at this as a bad thing, almost as if it signifies that Achane isn’t a capable running back; some will suggest that starter-type carries are not in the cards for Achane this upcoming season. Well, this couldn’t be further from the truth… The truth is that every running back like Achane needs a secondary rusher (or in this case a 1a to 1a) to shoulder half the workload with him. While we’d be lying if we said that we didn’t want half an Achane season with nearly 65-70% of the touches, Achane isn’t built to be a Kyren Williams, and that’s ok. And, that doesn’t even mean he cannot be as valuable fantasy wise… Achane is just a different running back.. The closest comparison and example I can give would be Austin Ekeler back in the Melvin Gordon days, where Ekeler didn’t even get more than 400 or 500 yards rushing per season… Now, Achane is easily a 800- to 1100-yard rusher: he is a bit different than Ekeler was in that exact role, but the point is that Ekeler was a top 5 to 10 running back during the seasons where he was more of a league-winning change-of-pace monster… And, yes, those types of rushers exist. To put this in perspective… Achane could end up being the NFL’s number one overall running back in yards per carry in the history of the league… He’s already producing at that level and holds that title technically with his 7.8 yards per carry (the best in NFL history since the 1930s)… he’s able to deliver that type of product and efficiency by being fresh. I’m not saying he would get hurt or not hold up if he did let’s say have to be the number one running back and get 70% of the work for 10-straight games… But, it is a sweet spot number that the Dolphins have to get to in order to maximize his health and longevity, mixed with maximizing efficiency.

Conclusion

The bottom line here is this.. from a fantasy football perspective Mostert is not a huge long-term threat to Achane, and being that Mostert will play this season at 32 years of age, there is a strong chance we are likely to see a bunch of games of Achane by himself as the main back… Again, like emphasized above, we do want some of that… But, worst-case scenario this off-season would’ve been the team brining in a big free agent like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derek Henry, a rookie running back… the Mostert signing makes me think it’s unlikely that the Dolphins even draft a decent name rusher.. when you spend a big amount on a guy like Mostert, and this contract extension is big enough for RB at least… That tells you that the team’s focal point with early draft picks is not likely to be RB. Meaning, this Mostert signing is a blessing in disguise.. non-astute fantasy football owners will look at this as a negative and not see the positives (and the potential many lone starts that could come as a result of Mostert being 32; and then factor in Mostert’s long injury history). Also, keep in mind that Achane and Mostert coexisted brilliantly all year, plus at the end of the season Achane got fed no matter what.. Mostert was not in his way… It wouldn’t shock me one bit if Achane rushed for 1,100 yards, pulled in 50+ passes for 400+ yards and score 12-15 total touchdowns. He could even do this with Mostert missing minimal games, and that makes his brilliant middle-of-the-second ADP league-winning. The beautiful part? This Mostert signing might actually make him drop to 3.01.