NO DEALS: Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard.. impact?

Running Back Salaries

Barkley was the most likely to land a long-term deal yesterday, of the franchise-tagged rushers, but the Giants and the stud just could not agree on compensation. Barkley was reportedly pushing for nearly $16 million per season, and the Giants had made, according to Ian Rapoport (ESPN), about 3 or more stabs at upping offers (over the course of months), but none were acceptable to Barkley. Rapoport even stated yesterday that the guaranteed money (by NYG) was reportedly near $22 million. Another way of putting it is that the guaranteed money equaled x2 the current RB franchise tag (so, you can think of it like the Giants extending the $10.1 million franchise tag amount for 2 years in guaranteed fashion, which in a sense is reasonable given the franchise tag amount is the average of the top five salaries at the position.

On it's face, this sounds fair. One might argue that no problem exists for RBs and that Barkley is being greedy. But, it's the discrepancy across positions that is the issue. Yeah, Barkley may be getting $10.1 million (roughly) for one season on the franchise tag (for RBs); however, since the running back position is grossly underpaid (compared to the other positions in the NFL), getting the average of the top five player salaries at the position isn't actually as impressive as one might imagine. In fact, since 2019, no running back has received a long-term contract where the yearly amount has exceeded 10 million dollars (Nick Chubb was the last player during that 2019 season). That's kind of crazy when you think about it.

All in all, runners cannot do much about this discrepancy, and in a way, Barkley didn't do the position any favors turning away the first double-digit salary offered to an RB (on a long-term deal) since Chubb in 2019. Now we add yet another year of such a situation on the books in the NFL, which could keep cementing unfair market value on top of unfair market value. So, what does it all mean?

What is the fantasy impact for all three of Barkley, Pollard and Jacobs? Watch the video attached to this article for extensive detail, but here is a cliff note summary below. Read the below for more, but again, I urge you to watch the video as well.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is not happy. He tweeted out "it is what it is" immediately after the 4pm ET deadline passed with no upped offer on the part of the Giants. Quickly after the deadline passed yesterday, rumors surfaced that Barkley will not report to the team soon, thus heading into a potential holdout. However, I think the dust needs to settle first before we assume Barkley is going to fight some sort of fight that has no ability for him to get that long-term deal. No one can get a long-term deal now, not a single one of Barkley, Pollard or Jacobs. That deadline passing means that all three RBs play on the tag amount, which is $10.1 million, for the 2023 season. No exceptions. Unless they do not sign the deal. Thus, holding out only hurts the RB, as they are going to get another year older if they truly holdout all season.. and, holding out would put fears of 'rust' and 'injury risk' on the minds of potential teams interested in said holdout player (Barkley in this case) in 2024. His best and only bet is to bet on himself, ball out, then swing back into the 2024 off-season with momentum.  He has to stay healthy, though.

Prediction: I think Barkley balls out in 2023, is a top 1-4 rushing yard getter, however, I think teams will be more cautious about giving Barkely, who will be 27 next off-season, the deal he thought he deserved this off-season. He needs to play on the $10.1 salary this year or he runs the risk of getting way less than he wanted at the end of all of this. He might as well earn $10.1 million in 2023, even running the risk of injury, and letting his stellar play earn him something next off-season that is close to what he was offered recently by the Giants.. if he takes the $10 million this year, he is $10 million dollars richer, assuming he gets a 2-3 year deal somewhere in 2024.. holding out would likely land him the same offer he just turned down (but with no money this year). It would be like just hitting the pause button. Even if it was slightly more next season (and let's say he does holdout this season, though), sum total it won't be more than playing on $10 million now and getting said deal next off-season. It's that simple. I do NOT see Barkley dragging any sort of holdout into the 2023 regular season, though. I draft him with confidence in the middle of the second-round in upcoming 2023 fantasy drafts. So should you. If he falls to the top of round three, it's gold. Even the bottom of two is insanely safe.

Josh Jacobs

This situation worries me most of all, as the Raiders have Jimmy G throwing the football. He is not a field stretcher, and I think this entire offense tanks big-time in 2023. Eight-man fronts await Jacobs all season long and he either underperforms massively, or he gets injured. It's a shame because he earned his long-term deal last season, leading the league in rushing. He has an uphill battle this season, though, as the Raiders won't sniff the end zone much. And, Jacobs will see eight-man fronts all season. He's caught prisoner by the franchise tag, which has him trapped. Also, if Jacobs gets banged up at all in double-digit weeks this year, he is a strong candidate to sit out the remainder of the season like Lamar Jackson and Cooper Kupp did in 2022.. let's say he gets hurt week 12.. he will want to protect his health and ability to get a long-term deal in 2024.

Tony Pollard

A top 5-10RB season awaits Pollard in my opinion. If he gets hurt, though, he may not find a starting job, or big contract, next off-season. That's why a long-term deal was so critical for Pollard dynasty owners, as it locked him into a role even if misfortune struck in 2023. A long-term deal would hold his job in place. Another season-ending injury without a long-term deal makes him a player not likely to be brought back if he gets hurt this year, and no team would likely race after him in 2024 coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons. Let's hope he stays healthy, though, and know that I'm not predicting injury. I'm just merely suggesting that a long-term deal would have made Pollard's fantasy stock skyrocket in dynasty. In redraft, expect Pollard, who appears to be ready to go from his 2023 broken fibula, to explode this coming season, rush for well over 1200-1300 yards, pull 45+ receptions for 350+ receiving yards and 10+ total TDs.